Why Sports Betting?

Unlike gambling at a casino, sports betting offers a unique opportunity: the ability to profit consistently by finding mathematical edges. While every casino game—from slots to roulette—has a built-in house edge, sports betting is different: you can flip the script and find bets with an edge in your favor. SmartBettor helps you identify these profitable opportunities, focusing exclusively on bets with a positive expected value edge (+EV).

Understanding the Basics

What is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value estimates whether a bet will be profitable over many repetitions. Think of it like this:

• Negative EV (-EV): The typical casino game where the house always wins
• Positive EV (+EV): Bets where you have the mathematical advantage

A Simple Example

Imagine a coin flip where you:

• Bet $100
• Win $105 on heads
• Lose $100 on tails

Over 100 flips, you’d expect:

• 50 wins × $105 = $5,250
• 50 losses × $100 = $5,000
• Net profit: $250 (2.5% return)

This is +EV betting in action: small edges compound into consistent profits.

How Betting Markets Work

To understand why +EV opportunities exist, it’s crucial to understand the landscape of sports betting. The industry is split between two types of bookmakers who operate very differently, creating inefficiencies you can exploit.

There are two main types of sportsbooks in the betting ecosystem:

Market Makers (like Pinnacle, Bookmaker)

• Set the initial lines that the entire market follows
• Welcome professional / sharp bettors to help find the true price
• Operate on lower margins (smaller edge/vig)
• Use sophisticated odds-setting process with high betting limits
• Profit from high volume and accurate lines

Retail Books (like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

• Follow market makers’ lines rather than setting their own
• Limit or ban winning bettors
• Focus on recreational gamblers
• Profit from higher margins on casual bettors (often 2x higher edges than market makers)

This dynamic creates profitable opportunities. While market makers efficiently set prices, retail books often lag behind in updating their odds, creating discrepancies that you can exploit.

Conclusion: Betting With an Edge

Understanding how betting markets work reveals a key truth: profitable sports betting is about finding and exploiting edges. While the concepts of +EV betting and market dynamics might seem complex, they follow a clear logic—there are mathematical edges to be found when retail books lag behind market makers or misprice odds.

In our next guide, “Essential Concepts in Sports Betting,” we’ll cover the fundamental concepts needed for successful sports betting, including:

• Building disciplined betting strategies

• How to calculate and understand the probability of a bet hitting (implied probabilities)

• The impact of vigorish on betting odds

• Proper bankroll management using Kelly Criterion

• Understanding variance and the importance of volume